In recent years, there has been no fixed pattern in the fertilizer market. For example, the urea market has also been “out of the pattern” in recent years. It has been favored by the favorable atmosphere of the Indian bidding, the price of urea has risen madly, and the factors such as the post-term gas have affected the urea enterprises. The operating rate, short-term quotation should remain high, the current price of Linyi urea storage has risen to 2220 RMB (ton price, the same below), but the actual urea supply is still excessive, domestic demand for agriculture and industry is not ideal, the recent urea market It is only a short-term tension, and there is still the possibility of a rational callback later. It can be seen that the chemical fertilizer market has many variables and changes rapidly. Although the mono-ammonium market is not urea-like, in the near future, for example, the price of urea is rising, and the ammonium is not weak in the off-season. The price continues to rise after the holiday. So what is the specific market?
First of all, the price side. During the National Day, the production of monoammonium enterprises was normal, and only some production and delivery of orders to be issued were arranged. The orders were almost no new transactions, and the prices were naturally stable during the holidays. After the holiday, the one-ammonium enterprises began to introduce new prices one after another. Some enterprises quoted a price increase of 50 yuan or more. At present, the actual acceptance of 55% powder ammonium in Hubei Dachang has been 2,350 RMB, which is 50 RMB higher than before the festival. The factory price is also around 2,300 RMB and the price of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui and other places has also risen to around 2,350 Rmb, and the low-end price is less.
Second, the demand side. Some time before the holiday, the demand for monoammonium is actually not ideal. The first ammonium purchased by the compound fertilizer enterprise still has inventory, and there is also a small amount of replenishment in the later stage. Therefore, the demand for monoammonium concentration is not much, mostly small, but subject to Affected by the favorable factors such as raw material cost and supply, the price of monoammonium is high and rises slightly. After the holiday, the compound fertilizer production in autumn was basically over. The consumption of raw materials in Curry was almost the same. Some enterprises started the storage of raw materials for winter storage. It is reported that Shandong Compound Fertilizer has recently obtained the intention of getting goods, some of which are in some areas. The compound fertilizer small factory also has a procurement plan of more than 1,000 tons. There are not many suppliers in the hands of the traders. Naturally, they also need to get the right amount of goods. The demand is turned from cloudy to sunny.
Once again, the improvement of demand is also inseparable from the help of the current “spot is hard to find”. Is it difficult to supply a supply of ammonium? Last year, it was difficult to find a mono-ammonium spot. The mono-ammonium enterprises adopted a strategy of limiting production and insuring prices. The enterprises were limited in production, the supply was tight, and the limited supply was difficult to meet the demand. This allowed the price of monoammonium to maintain at least a certain level in the off-season. As for slipping. This year, with the increasing humanization of environmental protection inspections, the mono-ammonium enterprises have to control or operate while multilateral production. The operating rate of enterprises, especially the operating rate of large factories, has maintained a certain high level. At present, the operating rate of monoammonium in Hubei has reached more than 60%, although it has started. The high rate brings a little bit of bad, but the company adopts a strategy of restricting orders. After receiving a certain number of orders, the company will suspend the order. After the execution is completed, the new order will be suspended and the order will be suspended. This will make the inventory of the mono-ammonium low. Almost zero, “spot is hard to find” can appear. Compound fertilizer enterprises face the trend of “spots hard to find” and the growth of various ammonium raw materials. In order to ensure that there is a certain amount of raw materials for production, they gradually accept a new price of ammonium.
Finally, a brief description of the price trend of monoammonium raw materials. 28-30% of the phosphate rock ore in Hubei is about 500 RMB, and there is a continuing upward trend; the price of sulphur in the port of Puguang Sulfur Wanzhou Port and Changjiang Port has reached about 1,550 RMB, except Henan, 98% in other regions. The smelting acid factory is above 400 RMB, and the individual area is about 700 RMB, the liquid ammonia price is high, and it may continue to rise due to the increase in urea price. At present, Hubei liquid ammonia is more than 3,400 RMB.
On the whole, the emergence of monoammonium is difficult to find and the demand is getting better. The high raw material prices are closely related. Under the favorable atmosphere, the price of monoammonium may continue to rise, with a range of about 50 RMB. Changes in the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises and the collection of winter fertilizers and fertilizers.
